A 24/7 intelligence team. A worldwide network of people on the ground. Spot mispriced risks and overlooked opportunities before the evidence becomes consensus.
Round-the-clock agents. People on the ground. Together, they reveal emerging risks and opportunities others overlook.
Find the signal
Satellites, flights and shipping. News, social conversations and local reports. Filings and market data. Monitored 24/7, across languages and time zones.
Test the evidence
AI specialists trace origins, locate footage and challenge competing accounts. Watch them turn scattered clues into clear implications for companies, commodities and markets.
Go beyond public sources
Commission a port-side observation, local documents or field research. Get answers public data cannot provide.
Connect the evidence
See what the market has not connected.
Oil flows. Grain exports. Company sales. Election polling. Follow the evidence to the decision.
Hormuz / Oil & freight
A tanker strike in the Gulf of Oman. Follow the implications for the wider Hormuz oil corridor.
Hormuz / Oil & freight
Read the disruption. Position for the oil shock.
Follow tanker movements and reports from the ground to identify threatened oil flows and react to crude, freight and airline exposure before the disruption is fully priced in.
A tanker strike in the Gulf of Oman. Follow the implications for the wider Hormuz oil corridor.
How the assessment is built
Are oil flows constrained, or are ships simply rerouting? Compare tanker departures, transit delays and local reports with available export capacity. Resumed sailings or sustained loading interruptions can change the thesis for crude prices, freight rates and airlines’ fuel costs.
Ukraine / Wheat & food supply
Position ahead of the grain-price shock.
Track strikes, port closures and disrupted Ukrainian grain exports. Assess the supply squeeze and its implications for wheat prices before the market fully reacts.
Damaged grain infrastructure. Local observations reveal what can still be stored, loaded and exported.
How the assessment is built
Compare damaged storage and loading infrastructure with vessel departures, port notices and local evidence. Establish how much export capacity is unavailable and for how long. Alternative routes or restored loading can ease pressure on wheat prices, food producers and importers.
Luckin Coffee / Company shares
The evidence behind the stock-market short.
Short-selling investment firm Muddy Waters bet against shares in Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee. On-the-ground store-monitoring footage challenged the chain’s reported sales. Luckin later admitted fabricating revenue.
On-the-ground store monitoring exposed the gap between reported sales and actual customer activity.
How the assessment is built
Anonymous researchers produced the fieldwork-backed report. Muddy Waters received it, endorsed it as credible and used it for its short position: a trade that profits if the share price falls. Store observations and transaction evidence challenged the company’s sales figures.
Trump whale / Election markets
An information edge worth betting on.
In the 2024 US election, a trader commissioned private polling to challenge the consensus, then placed winning bets on Donald Trump through Polymarket. Original research created an edge beyond the public polls.
Privately commissioned polling turned an overlooked electorate into an information advantage.
How the assessment is built
According to Newsweek’s account of Wall Street Journal reporting, the trader known as Théo commissioned surveys asking how respondents thought their neighbours would vote. He used that research to challenge public polling and back Trump. The private survey results were not published.
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Original intelligence
Commission intelligence you cannot Google.
Field observations. Human-source reporting. Local evidence. Specialist technical analysis.
01
Do this chain’s reported sales match activity on the ground?
Dated store and transaction observations compared with reported sales
Brief details
Matched locations and time windows. Deliver location-by-location counts, receipts where available and a comparison with the chain’s reported sales. Explain sampling gaps and seasonal differences.
02
What is conventional polling missing in this electorate?
An independently commissioned survey with anonymised results and uncertainty
Brief details
An agreed electorate and fieldwork window. Deliver question wording, sampling method, anonymised responses and uncertainty. Compare direct voting questions with alternative wording and explain what the sample cannot establish.
03
Is this supplier’s factory operating at the scale it claims?
Dated site and public-road freight observations, checked against records
Brief details
Comparable shifts and observation periods. Deliver a dated activity log, corroborating shipping and company records, and a capacity assessment. Distinguish observed vehicle movements from inferred production.
04
Are exports actually slowing at this port?
Comparable queues, loading activity, departures and local reporting
Brief details
Matched observation windows and a recent baseline. Deliver a time-and-location log and a comparison of vessel departures and loading activity. Separate reduced export throughput from a temporary queue or a change in vessel size.
Example briefs. Public contributors strengthen open signals; Bounty Hunters submit commissioned original intelligence.
Oil-route disruption. Retail activity before earnings. A ceasefire before consensus. Find the signal with Vigil Network, understand your exposure with Intelligence OS, and commission the missing evidence.
Find the gap between the evidence and the market’s implied probability. Test the thesis against the contract’s exact resolution rules, competing accounts and the next decisive trigger.
Example question
Could a shipping disruption squeeze Maersk’s margins?
Translate longer voyages into fuel costs, capacity constraints and margin exposure. Compare Maersk with peers and test which developments strengthen or reverse the trade.
Example question
Will a new border restriction affect your operations?
Map a disruption through suppliers, delivery windows and commodity exposure. Identify where to reroute, diversify or investigate before the shortage reaches your business.
Connect satellite observations, corporate flights, filings and local reporting to expose the gap between an expansion announcement and activity on the ground.
Build an independent view of operating capacity and competitive momentum. Test the earnings narrative against physical activity, then target the evidence that could change your investment decision.
Follow priority locations and compare access reports as conditions change.
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